Early poll outcomes for Election 2010 might be off just a bit, because of a prejudice that Pew Research has dubbed the "cell phone effect". According to the NY Times, land lines are out of style; at least 25 percent of adults use cellular technology exclusively. Because many pollsters don’t call cell phones, results can be off by as much as four points, reports the Times.
A more powerful group of Democrats with the Cell phone Effect
Cell phone-only voters are generally younger adults who are Caucasian and live in urban areas. They also made the term "cell phone effect" essential, Pew Research reports. Interestingly, these demographics coincide with those of many Democrats. That means Democrats could be as much as four points closer to the top than they seem.
Is this a discontentment being shown?
Polls conducted without cell phones by Pew showed Republicans to be ahead by 9.3 points on average. Part of that may be due to the Cell phone Effect, when the rest could be attributed to discontentment with the Obama administration’s inability to quickly remedy problem issues like unemployment and also the housing industry. Sometimes cell phones are involved. In this case, the swing isn't there as much which makes individuals believe that it’s more about the Cell phone Effect than anything else. Pew plans to analyze Election 2010 data more fully after all results are verified.
The bias amongst those most likely to vote on things
According to Pew Research, there is also bias to be found among those considered most likely to vote in Election 2010. Specifically, combined land line/cell phone polls showed a seven-point Republican lead. Out of those people, half supported candidates for the GOP. Another 43 percent supported the candidates that were Democrats. Pew Research explains that a 12 point lead for republicans was shown in a land-line only poll.
Details from
New York Times
fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/01/5-reasons-democrats-could-beat-the-polls-and-hold-the-house/
Pew Research Center
pewresearch.org/pubs/1761/cell-phones-and-election-polls-2010-midterm-elections
How the cell phone effect helped Obama in 2008
youtube.com/watch?v=KMmvo73EZHc
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